After sitting patiently for a week, as copper moved higher, I think that now is an opportune time to re-enter the trade. I'm going short copper due to the continuing theme of commodity de-leveraging, which, due to the nature of margin calls, could very quickly turn into a negative feedback loop and drag the entire asset class down dramatically. Barron's had an interesting article highlighting the level of speculative activity in the space, and I believe they are correct. The only commodity I would continue to be long of would be Natural Gas, for the CFTC commitments of traders report shows that it is still positioned materially net-short. However it is trading above $10, a psychologically important level, and if it shows signs of weakness in here, I will most likely cover this trade today, as it has been nicely profitable, and leave the short CL leg of the trade on.
Also, going short Sugar and Palladium, as those appear to be the most vulnerable to the withdrawl of the "fast money" in commodities, seems to make a great deal of sense, although it is a very risky trade, and one that I would not put my capital to work on. However I will continue to watch these two in the coming days.
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