Canada

Short CAD/USD.
The US dollar has depreciated substantially, and its relationship with commodity prices has been exceptionally tight this year. Whether commodities are a leading or lagging indicator tied to the USD is subject to debate (though commodities are certainly not responsible for the lion's share of the USD's weakening). However on a daily basis, the two have tended to trade in lockstep. Although this trade has already moved, I would like to go long the USD and short the CAD, on the basis that commodity price crashes, and the severe damage done to their export-driven economy by the run-up in the CAD's value earlier this year (there has been a string of defaults and near defaults for Canadian exporting companies) will hurt their postive balance of trade status, and will force a correction in the currency. I'm expecting approximately a 50% retracement from where the currency moved last year. Price target is $1.05. Hopefully it will reach this level sooner rather than later.