Monday, January 21, 2008

The great unwind


Global markets continue lower today, with US markets closed. JPY is up substantially, with carry trades being unwound rapidly and the Bank of Japan mulling a rate hike. This bodes poorly for Japan's trade-based economy. It also has serious repercussions for net debtor currencies, or any economy that has positively benefited from the carry trade in the past. I would look to go long JPY and CHF, however as this trade has already moved fairly substantially. Start with a small position then attempt to buy dips (if any).
SPX futures are down over 3% overseas. This, unfortunately, is still the beginning of the decline. The steepness and severity over the next few weeks will tell us a great deal about how long and deep the full recession will be. Full position short SPX futures.
Gold is being pulled down by equities, however, again, with the activity in equities and FX it "should" be higher rather than lower. Unfortunately, Gold ETF's are being redeemed. I am holding a small position in the metal, and am looking to add to it over time, especially once the correlation between Gold and equities disintegrates.

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